Why Xi Doesn’t Need a Deal With Trump

When Xi Jinping met President Trump last year, the Chinese leader wielded his country’s control over critical minerals, a strong posture that helped nudge Mr. Trump to agree to a yearlong trade truce. This week, when Mr. Xi hosts the American president in Beijing, he will have another powerful card to play: the war in Iran.

While the United States has been at war, Mr. Xi has been calling for peace and receiving foreign dignitaries from the Gulf and Europe seeking his help to end the crisis. Just before the U.S. president’s visit, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, traveled to Beijing in a not-so-subtle reminder of China’s sway over its partner in the Middle East.

“The Iran issue actually helps China,” said Li Daokui, a prominent economist at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

China, he said, has important economic leverage over Tehran that it could be willing to use in pursuit of goals it cares more about — chief among them, prying the United States away from Taiwan, the self-governing island Beijing claims is its own.

That should give Mr. Xi extra confidence going into the summit that starts Thursday, the leaders’ first in-person meeting since October. The White House has been trying to pressure China, a key buyer of sanctioned Iranian oil, to cut back on its support of Tehran.

China’s Useful Influence Over Iran

China has its own reasons to help end the conflict. Its economy is affected by higher energy prices. A global recession would hurt China’s exports, which are a major engine of growth. Its strategic oil reserves, while helpful, are not limitless.