Wall Street will continue to monitor the Iran-Israel conflict next week, with stocks at an impasse
Wall Street will continue to monitor the Iran-Israel war next week, with stocks at a bit of an impasse as investors await greater clarity on the economic outlook. The S & P 500 remains on the cusp of an all-time high, more than 2% off a February peak it has yet to clear as investors eye an escalating conflict in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve’s next move, the progress in Washington of the “one big beautiful bill” — all amid ongoing trade uncertainty and signs of softening in the economy. Whether stocks can continue to chart a path higher next week will depend in large part on developments on all of those fronts. On Friday, at least, stocks initially got a bit of a boost after President Donald Trump said he will wait two weeks to make a decision on whether the U.S. will join Israel’s military campaign against Tehran — a relief for investors following more inflammatory language this week out of the president. Adding to bullish sentiment was Fed Governor Christopher Waller telling CNBC’s Steve Liesman he doesn’t expect tariffs to lift inflation significantly so policymakers could be looking to cut interest rates in July. “The market is cautiously optimistic that negotiations could lead to a de-escalation of the conflict and more importantly no involvement by the U.S. There is also skepticism that the ‘two-week’ timetable is a too familiar saying used by the President to delay making any major decision,” wrote Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “Pausing the clock may be a good thing, but this delay is very familiar to the tariff delay and the so-called TACO trade,” added Woods. “The markets remain in a wait-and-see mode and tread water around this 6,000 level for now.” On Friday, the S & P 500 closed lower on the week, down 0.15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a gain, up just 0.02%. The Nasdaq Composite notched its third positive week in four, up 0.2%. Biding time, softening data The stock comeback of the last two months has perplexed many investors, who remain befuddled by the market’s insistence to look past conflict, tariffs and major challenges to the economic outlook, to make short work of recovering losses from their April lows. Several chart analysts are confident the stock comeback can continue, given the strength of the underlying market. IBM is the top-performing stock in the Dow in 2025, up about 28% this year and outpacing the Magnificent Seven stocks. Industrials, these analysts point out, are the No. 1 sector in the S & P 500 this year, a favorable signal on the strength of the U.S. economy. Some expect semiconductors, which have led the comeback rally after getting punished earlier this year, could hold the key for the S & P 500 getting back to all-time highs. Freedom Capital Markets’ Woods said he’s especially keeping an eye on a close above $150 a share for Nvidia. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia, year to date Yet there are also some signs of weakening in the economic data, giving investors some pause. Evercore ISI’s Stan Shipley said in a Friday note that a raft of data this week — including retail sales, jobless claims, industrial production, homebuilders’ sentiment, and housing starts data — are now “materially weaker.” He wrote: “The hard data on a weakening economy is picking up momentum .” Elsewhere, JPMorgan economist Nora Szentivanyi wrote, “U.S. data for May reinforced signals that the early-year boost to activity has started to fade.” “The continued rise in import prices suggests the tax bite is being felt domestically even if price increases for consumers are likely to be more delayed and drawn out than previously anticipated,” Szentivanyi wrote. “A broad range of companies plan to increase goods prices in coming months and we continue to look for a material rise in consumer prices related to tariffs.” .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, year to date Yet many investors remain confident markets can continue to advance — even if they tread water for the next several weeks — largely because of a strong consumer, as well as the shot to productivity expected to come later in the year from artificial intelligence. Freedom Capital Markets’ Woods said he expects the S & P 500 can get to 6,500 or 6,600, another roughly 10% from current levels, through the end of the year. “It is mind blowing to see that we climb this wall of worry with concerns over tariffs, and now, war,” Woods said. “The sectors that have led us from this rally, some of the most beaten-down names were technology stocks, and technology continues to lead. And there are a lot of positive signs that really keep me in the secular bull camp in a way where I think we can go much higher here.” Of course, there will be further challenges to that outlook. Next week investors will get the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — after Fed Chair Jerome Powell this week voiced concerns around the effect tariffs will have on pricing pressures. In the prior reading, PCE rose 0.1% in April , and 2.1% on an annual basis. Consumers could also take a hit from rising oil prices, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. On the earnings front next week, FedEx and Nike will give further insight into the strength of the consumer. Micron, also reporting, can give some indication on whether the semiconductor rally still has some steam. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, June 23 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite preliminary (June) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Manufacturing preliminary (June) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services preliminary (June) 10 a.m. Existing Home Sales (May) Tuesday, June 24 9 a.m. FHFA Home Price Index (April) 9 a.m. S & P/Case-Shiller comp.20 HPI (April) 10 a.m. Consumer Confidence (June) 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (June) Earnings: FedEx , Carnival Wednesday, June 25 8 a.m. Building Permits final (May) 10 a.m. New Home Sales (May) Earnings: Micron Technology , General Mills Thursday, June 26 8:30 a.m. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (May) 8:30 a.m. Continuing Jobless Claims (6/14) 8:30 a.m. Durable Orders preliminary (May) 8:30 a.m. GDP Chain Price final (Q1) 8:30 a.m. GDP (Q1) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (6/21) 8:30 a.m. Wholesale Inventories preliminary (May) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales Index (May) 10 a.m. Pending Home Sales (May) 11 a.m. Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index (June) Earnings: Nike , Walgreens Boots Alliance , McCormick & Co. Friday, June 27 8:30 a.m. Core PCE Deflator (May) 8:30 a.m. PCE Deflator (May) 8:30 a.m. Personal Consumption Expenditure (May) 8:30 a.m. Personal Income (May) 10 a.m. Michigan Sentiment final (June)
Source – CNBC
