Huge oil bet precedes Trump ceasefire extension

Spike in activity the fourth to occur just minutes before major Iran-related news breaks

LONDON – Traders placed ⁠a ⁠series of bets worth $430 million ​on a drop in crude oil prices just 15 minutes before US President ​Donald Trump said he would extend a ‌ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.

It is the third time this month — and the fourth in total — that huge, well-timed directional bets on the oil price have been made shortly before major announcements on the Iran ​war. One combined wager ⁠in March was worth $500 million, while bets in April have together totalled $2.1 billion.

Writing on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday, Trump said: “Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal.”

Between 1954 and 1956 GMT on Tuesday, 4,260 lots of selling hit the ‌oil market, worth a combined $430 million, based on the prevailing Brent futures price, according to LSEG data. At 2010 GMT, Trump said he would extend the ceasefire indefinitely.

The Brent market ⁠settles at 1830 GMT, meaning these trades took place in what is known as post-settlement hours, when volumes are usually extremely limited.

The trades did not have much impact on the price, which edged down to $100.66 a barrel, from $100.91 before they took place. After Trump’s ​announcement, Brent crude futures fell to a low of $96.83 in the minute that followed. They were last trading at $99.20 a barrel at 1200 ​GMT ‌on Wednesday.

On March 23, 15 minutes before Trump announced a delay to threatened attacks on Iranian power infrastructure, anonymous traders placed $500 million ​on ⁠a drop in the oil price. Similarly, on April 7, bets worth $950 million went through just hours before Trump’s announcement ⁠of a two-week ceasefire.

On April 17, just 20 minutes prior to the Iranian foreign minister posting on social media that the Strait of Hormuz would be open to commercial shipping, traders ⁠placed $760 million worth of bets on a falling oil price.

The US ​Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating a series of oil futures trades, including those on March 23 and April 7, that were placed shortly before major policy shifts by Trump related to the ‌war in Iran, a ⁠person familiar with the matter said ​on April 15.