Novo Nordisk shares tumble 11% after company forecasts sales declines this year

Novo Nordisk‘s U.S. shares plummeted late Tuesday after the company said it sees sales and profit growth declining this year, expecting a sales hit.

The company published the forecast as it reported full-year 2025 sales, ahead of the quarterly report expected Wednesday morning.

Novo’s American depositary shares fell 11% as of 12:05 pm ET. The results were published after the closing bell in Copenhagen, where the company has its primary listing.

Its forecast comes as the Danish drugmaker is fighting to regain its footing as the leading weight loss drugmaker amid fierce competition.

In 2025, sales increased by 10% and operating profit increased by 6%, in line with the company’s guidance.

For 2026, the drugmaker sees sales declining between 5% and 13% at constant exchange rates.

“The outlook reflects expectations for sales growth within International Operations and expectations for a sales decline within US Operations,” Novo said in a statement.

The Ozempic maker is banking on its Wegovy pill and next-generation weight-loss injectable CagriSema to recapture market share in the U.S. – and revive its slumping stock price. 

Novo stock fell 46.5% last year, driven by a series of guidance cuts, leadership shakeups and intensifying competition, but has regained some ground after becoming the first company to launch an oral GLP-1 treatment for obesity in the U.S. market.

Novo launched the oral version of the blockbuster weight-loss medicine Wegovy in the U.S. early January, and, despite its promising start, the market is closely watching how Novo Nordisk will fare along with U.S. rival Eli Lilly, which is expected to launch its own weight loss pill in the first half of 2026.

“Investors want to see they are making the most of this lead, particularly in the direct to patient (mostly self-pay or cash pay) channel, closing some of the large gap that widened between them and Lilly in this channel in 2025,” said Morningstar analyst Karen Andersen.

Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, is losing exclusivity in markets like Canada, Brazil and China in 2026. Together with significant pricing pressure in its largest market, the U.S., analysts forecast sales growth to moderate this year to single digits after several years of much higher growth.

Coming into the print, Barclays analyst James Gordon said the Novo guide was expected to crystalize further downgrades, however could also act as a clearing event given the “significant investor concern” about this year’s outlook.

“[Guidance] cuts could be at least partly mitigated by investors taking the opportunity to then buy into the Oral Wegovy US launch and Injectable Wegovy potential US volume inflection this year.”

Novo has faced pressure for the past 18 months as rival U.S.-based Eli Lilly’s rival weight-loss drug tirzepatide – sold as Mounjaro and Zepbound – resulted in more pronounced weight loss than Novo’s medicine, and surpassed Novo in U.S. market share.

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