InnovestX touts selective investment
Energy-driven inflation, elevated government bond yields, and uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy have continued to pressure the global economy, says InnovestX Securities, stressing the need for a more selective investment strategy for Thai stocks amid limited upside.
Sutthichai Kumworachai, head of investment strategy and research at InnovestX, said the global economy is navigating through a critical transition period between downside pressures and emerging growth opportunities.
“Global markets continue to face three major forces: energy-driven inflation, elevated government bond yields, and uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy,” he said.
Against this backdrop, InnovestX sees three important growth drivers gaining momentum: artificial intelligence (AI)-related investment, easing geopolitical tensions, and large fiscal stimulus measures across major economies.
These factors are expected to provide meaningful support for global growth and investment opportunities going forward, said Mr Sutthichai.
Piyasak Manason, head of economic research, said InnovestX expects the global economy to follow a U-shaped recovery.
Activity may soften in the second and third quarters amid tighter financial conditions worldwide, weakening European manufacturing, declining US consumer confidence, and K-shaped growth in China, where manufacturing and exports remain solid but domestic spending remains subdued.
A gradual recovery in the fourth quarter would be supported by technology investment and fiscal stimulus measures across several economies, he noted.
The brokerage upgraded its 2026 Thai GDP forecast from 1.4% to 1.6%, supported by private investment, the digital industry, AI infrastructure and government stimulus.
“We will be monitoring electronics and the progress of stimulus measures, as well as the momentum of AI-related investment and the US Section 301 penalties,” said Mr Piyasak.
STAY SELECTIVE
Sittichai Duangrattanachaya, head of investment strategy at the brokerage, said the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, in addition to the AI investment “supercycle” and positive sentiment surrounding the US midterm elections should act as structural tailwinds and limit downside risk.
Despite short-term uncertainty, InnovestX continues to advocate a selective investment strategy focused on companies with strong balance sheets, pricing power and clear earnings visibility, said Mr Sittichai.
The brokerage raised its Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) 2026 index target range to 1,550-1,600 points, reflecting stronger economic momentum and improved earnings prospects, he said.
Beyond domestic opportunities, InnovestX believes global diversification will play an increasingly important role in portfolio construction.
“Maintaining a diversified portfolio, focusing on quality assets, and gaining exposure to long-term global trends remain key strategies for navigating uncertainty and capturing sustainable investment opportunities in the years ahead,” said Saran Potewiratananond, head of proprietary trading at InnovestX.
Under this strategy, the brokerage said its DR23 (depositary receipt) scheme serves as an efficient gateway to global opportunities.
DR23 covers a wide range of global investment themes, including AI and semiconductors, robotics, digital platforms, healthcare, energy, dividend strategies, and leading global exchange-traded funds.
The scheme enables investors to access world-class companies and long-term structural growth opportunities via the baht through their existing securities accounts.
Within one year, DR23 has expanded to 85 underlying securities covering four countries and six major global exchanges, including the US, Hong Kong, China and Japan.
“This reflects growing demand among investors for convenient access to global investment opportunities through the SET,” said Mr Saran.
Source – Bangkok News
