Eli Lilly blows past estimates, hikes sales outlook as Zepbound and Mounjaro demand surge again

Eli Lilly on Thursday reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that blew past estimates and hiked its full-year sales outlook, as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro soared again. 

Despite that strength, sales of its new GLP-1 obesity pill Foundayo, which launched in the U.S. in April, were under Wall Street’s expectations for the quarter.

The pharmaceutical giant now expects 2026 revenue to come in between $91 billion and $92 billion, up from a previous guidance of $85 billion to $87 billion. 

Lilly projects its full-year adjusted earnings will be between $35 and $36 per share, which compares with a previous outlook of $35.50 to $36.50 per share. The company said it raised the underlying profit guidance by $4.07 per share at the midpoint, but noted that it is offset by $4.57 per share in charges tied to deals in the quarter.

The company’s shares rose about 4% in premarket trading.

Lilly’s massive diabetes and obesity windfall – and market share lead over chief rival Novo – shows no signs of slowing down, even as the company grapples with lower net prices in the U.S. The pharma giant is converting its massive profits into a dealmaking spree, most recently striking an agreement to buy Merida Biosciences to develop a new class of treatments for serious autoimmune and allergic diseases. 

Here’s what Eli Lilly reported for the third quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG: 

• Earnings per share: $7.48 adjusted vs. $6.26 expected
• Revenue: $24.40 billion vs. $22.61 billion expected

Resilient demand for Zepbound and Mounjaro has helped fuel several strong quarters for Lilly despite lower prices for the medications in the U.S., which came after a drug pricing deal struck with the Trump administration last year. In a release, Lilly also pointed to expanded U.S. coverage for obesity care, referring to Medicare’s decision to start covering GLP-1s for weight loss in July under a temporary pilot program.  

Mounjaro’s worldwide revenue rose 65% to $10.72 billion for the quarter, including U.S. sales of about $5 billion. That surpassed the $10.10 billion in worldwide sales and $4.79 billion in U.S. revenue that analysts were expecting for the quarter, according to StreetAccount.

Mounjaro notably saw strength internationally, with sales outside the U.S. jumping 93%.

Zepbound, which entered the market roughly three years ago, posted $5.35 billion in revenue for the third quarter. That’s up 49% from the year-earlier period, as demand for the drug also rose while realized prices dropped. The vast majority of those sales came from the U.S. 

Analysts were expecting $5.09 billion in global sales for Zepbound, including $4.99 billion from the U.S., according to StreetAccount.

Lilly’s newly launched obesity pill, Foundayo, which won U.S. approval in April, took in $184 million in sales for the third quarter. That fell under analyst forecasts of around $229 million in sales, StreetAccount estimates showed. 

It marks the second earnings report that includes revenue from the GLP-1 pill, which is competing head-to-head with a rival oral drug from Novo that launched in January. 

Lilly is working to maintain its dominance in the booming market for GLP-1 drugs, with the company holding 63% share of the U.S. obesity and diabetes drug market in the third quarter, according to an earnings presentation on Thursday. Novo’s market share in the quarter was 36.6%.

Internationally, Lilly held 58.4% share of the market, while Novo had 41.6%, the presentation said.

Eli Lilly’s revenue in the U.S. climbed 34% to $15.1 billion. Lilly said it saw a 41% increase in volume — or the number of prescriptions or units sold — for its products, primarily for Mounjaro and Zepbound. That was partially offset by a 7% decrease in realized prices, primarily driven by Zepbound.

Lilly’s quarter was also boosted by a sales-based milestone payout of $410 million for its Type 2 diabetes medication Jardiance, related to the company’s collaboration with Boehringer Ingelheim.

Sales outside the U.S. jumped 47% to $9.3 billion, propelled by a 76% surge in volume and partly offset by a 29% drop in realized prices. 

The pharmaceutical giant booked net income of $6.45 billion, or $7.22 per share, for the third quarter, which includes the $4.57 per share deal charges. That compares with net income of $5.58 billion, or $6.21 per share, a year earlier. 

Excluding one-time items associated with the value of intangible assets and other adjustments, Eli Lilly posted earnings of $7.48 per share for the third quarter.

Source – CNBC